Market Graph TodayArchive

The Probable Times

The market graph — how the crowd’s forecasts move together

Each circle is an open question; size follows trading volume. Solid lines mean the two markets’ prices moved together hour-by-hour over the last 7 days (green = same direction, red = opposite). Dashed lines mean shared subject matter. Drag, zoom, hover; click to open the market.

Cross-section co-movements

Correlations are computed on hourly probability changes (not levels) across the last 7 days, which filters out coincidental drift; only synchronized reactions survive. Correlation is still not causation — treat cross-section pairs as curiosities until they persist.