What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?: 21% → 84%
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? moved from 21% to 84% over the last 7d; Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? moved from 15% to 81% over the last 7d; Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? moved from 38% to 86% over the last 7d; Will Rodri join Real Madrid? moved from 85% to 36% over the last 7d. Full section tables below.
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
15%→81%7d
$10,022 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
38%→86%7d
$44,956 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Rodri join Real Madrid?
85%→36%7d
$10,021 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
24%→64%7d
$105,848 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
48%→80%7d
$72,421 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Ben Shelton Win ATP Montreal
50%→12%7d
$10,531 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?
39%→12%24h
$65,278 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause) — July 31 at 84% (+6 pts/24h, +63 pts/7d); US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? — August 15 at 64% (-13 pts/24h, +40 pts/7d).
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?16%▼ 6 24h
Economy & Crypto
Markets price: Largest Company end of August? — NVIDIA at 86% (+3 pts/24h, +48 pts/7d); Largest Company end of December 2026? — Apple at 16% (-2 pts/24h, -19 pts/7d).
Markets price: Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...? — August 10 at 38% (-28 pts/24h, +5 pts/7d); Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...? — August 14 at 50% (-25 pts/24h, +21 pts/7d).
Markets price: Where will Rodri transfer? — Real Madrid at 36% (-43 pts/24h, -50 pts/7d); Where will Vinicius Junior transfer? — Arsenal at 12% (-27 pts/24h, -8 pts/7d).
Markets price: "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? — 900m+ at 81% (+1 pts/24h, +66 pts/7d); Highest grossing movie in 2026? — Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 92% (+1 pts/24h, +8 pts/7d).