Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Markets slashed the odds of an October Gemini Pro release by 55 points in a day, flipping to a 76% bet against any launch before November. Meanwhile Gulf diplomacy kept losing ground and Flávio Bolsonaro's debate odds firmed to 96% in Brazil.
Markets now put 74% odds on no Putin-Zelenskyy summit before 2027, longer-dated US-Iran talks keep losing ground, and traders have all but buried Oura's public listing at 84%.
Traders pushed the odds Donald Trump renames AI by September 30 to 54%, up 26 points on the day, while pricing Anthropic's next Sonnet model at a 93% chance of clearing an elite benchmark score. Meanwhile the Ballon d'Or tightened to a near coin-flip and Bulgaria's presidential race grew more lopsided.
Prediction markets pulled forward the timetable for the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting and tilted its likely venue toward the United States. Minnesota's WNBA championship odds cratered overnight, and traders kept raising the odds of a Trump-driven AI rebrand.
Nithya Raman's mayoral odds climbed to 59% this week while Anthropic's IPO timeline slid further out of reach, even as the Strait of Hormuz and Mykolaivka fronts saw risk quietly repriced downward.
Traders slashed Manchester City's 2027 title odds by 15 points overnight while Arsenal surged to favorite, even as slower-moving contracts on Saudi oil, Venezuela, and Los Angeles's mayoralty kept shifting beneath the surface.
A summit-day gesture goes from afterthought to coin flip overnight, while traders price rising odds of a Hormuz shipping incident and cool sharply on a Houthi tanker seizure.
Bettors abandoned Karen Bass for Nithya Raman in the Los Angeles mayor's race on record volume, while Bucharest's premiership odds flipped from Alexandru Nazare to Sorin Grindeanu and Wall Street pushed Anthropic's IPO timeline toward year-end.
A single day's trading pushed Qatar's foreign minister from afterthought to favorite in the race to attend US-Iran talks, while Riyadh's pipeline timeline slipped later and the Fed's hawks gained further ground.
Polymarket traders now give Delcy Rodríguez a 43% chance of leading Venezuela by year-end, up 32 points this week, while Nicolás Maduro's odds have slipped to 55%, down 29 points. Elsewhere, chess, entertainment, and a Senate race posted the sharpest swings of the day.
Traders now put a Trump-brokered Greenland pact at 98%, up 83 points in a week, even as they push Anthropic's IPO timeline deeper into December and turn hawkish on the Fed.
Markets flipped Venezuela's succession odds overnight, while Gulf oil and shipping risk swung hard and Anthropic's IPO clock kept slipping.
A Trump-Greenland deal contract that traders had all but written off jumped 80 points in a single day to 94%, the sharpest repricing on the board, while Anthropic's October IPO odds collapsed and OpenAI's hardware bet doubled overnight.
Alexandru Nazare's odds of becoming Romania's next prime minister cratered 41 points in a day, handing the lead to a rival few had priced above 12% a week ago. Elsewhere, traders grew newly convinced AI will crack a century-old math problem and that MrBeast's numbers will land exactly where his fans expect.
Traders erased nearly all odds of a Resident Evil box-office bust while Fed rate-hike consensus hardened toward 66% — separate markets, same appetite for certainty.
A crypto market-structure bill's Senate prospects collapsed overnight, while traders pushed the odds of a 2026 Fed rate hike to near-lock territory.
A sudden diplomatic opening in the Levant dominated the tape, while bond markets quietly cemented a higher-for-longer rate view and the Fed's own verdict arrived mostly by calendar.
Odds of a 25-basis-point increase have climbed to 80% on the September contract and 89% for the year, a seven-day swing traders are treating as a live call rather than a formality. Elsewhere, Gulf diplomacy cooled as fast as it warmed a week ago.
Prediction markets pulled back from a week-long AI-IPO rally, trimming Anthropic and OpenAI valuation odds even as their conviction on a September Fed hike kept hardening.
Fed-hike odds jumped to 80% on the day the US-Iran ceasefire firmed further and OpenAI's Astra model face-planted on its Arena debut.
Traders now put an Israeli airspace closure by September 30 at 97%, up 87 points over the week, while odds of an Israel-Lebanon meeting by September 15 leapt 67 points in a day to 80% — the sharpest geopolitical repricing on the board.
Markets now price a 65% chance the freshly launched $LAPTOP token's fully diluted value tops $500M within a day — up 40 points since yesterday — even as its odds of landing on Binance or Bybit within a month collapsed. The divergence captures a day when traders raced ahead of the facts across crypto, tennis, and geopolitics alike.
Prediction markets pushed the odds of an Israeli airspace shutdown to 96% this week, even as Apple's foldable iPhone bets cratered overnight and Anthropic's IPO timeline retreated across nearly every date on the board.
Traders lifted the odds of a durable Iran ceasefire and a Sweden Liberal breakthrough overnight, while a surprise re-rating sent Spider-Man's box-office forecast surging 44 points in a single day.
Traders push Israeli airspace-closure odds to 82% as the month's deadline nears, while conviction in an Anthropic IPO by October 31 cools 28 points over the week. Elsewhere, Carlos Alcaraz tightens his grip on the US Open and Sachsen-Anhalt's AfD landslide simply confirms itself as votes are counted.
Overnight repricing pushed the odds of Israeli military action against Lebanon to near-certainty, while Anthropic's IPO clock reset sharply later and Lindsay Clancy's conviction odds kept sliding.
Markets swung the odds of an Israeli airspace shutdown up 62 points in a single day. Meanwhile Wall Street's conviction in an Anthropic IPO evaporated and Lindsay Clancy's murder-conviction odds collapsed to single digits.
September rate-hike odds cooled sharply on the day even as the week's drift still pointed toward tightening, while Sweden's Liberals extended a slow climb and OpenAI's Astra ran out the clock on its own deadline.
Traders piled into a Sept. 15 GPT-6 launch, sending its odds from 46% to 88% in 24 hours, while sibling bets on OpenAI's Astra and the next Mythos-Class model raced toward certainty too. Elsewhere, the Fed's rate path wobbled and Tehran's blockade odds kept fading.
Markets have priced Augusto Cury out of Brazil's presidency at 2%, down 32 points this week, even as he still leads the fight for third place at 50%. Elsewhere, traders nudge a Trump-Putin summit toward China and warm to an Israel-Lebanon meeting.
Rate-hike odds for the September Fed meeting overtook hold odds for the first time this week, even as traders raised the odds of a wider Gulf conflict and a Brazilian third-place upset gathered steam.
Strike-risk contracts on the UAE and Qatar jumped double digits at horizons a month out, not just tomorrow's deadline market — while a $1.9 million Fed contract flipped toward a September hike.
Markets now bet GPT-6, OpenAI's Astra, and the next Mythos-class model all arrive sooner than they thought a week ago, even as the Fed stays split on September and traders start pricing a December hike too.
Fed decision markets swung 13 points overnight, with a 25-basis-point September increase jumping to 44% as 'no change' fell to 56%. Traders separately embraced a stranger repricing: odds that Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to 'Lake America' by September 15 leapt 52 points to 88%.
Prediction markets pulled Anthropic's IPO timeline forward and lifted its valuation targets in tandem, even as they crowned Moonshot the new second-best Chinese AI lab overnight. Z.ai's collapse to 5% was the sharpest reversal of the day.
Overall odds that any nation joins the pact by October 31 collapsed to 10%, down 42 points in a day — not because the deal is dying, but because traders swapped their favorite signatory, sending Lebanon to 51% and Sudan down to 9%.
The largest-IPO wager flipped hands overnight, with SpaceX's odds down 25 points and Anthropic's up 13, while transfer-market chaos and a fading blockbuster reshuffled expectations elsewhere.
Markets now give the US-Iran ceasefire a 94% chance of lasting through August, up 40 points in a week, even as a rival Hormuz accord loses ground. Elsewhere, Chelsea's grip on Enzo Fernández evaporated overnight.
A 42-point overnight swing in Iran's currency market and a five-week climb in Russia's odds of taking Mykolaivka gave prediction markets their sharpest reads of the week, while Hollywood, the gridiron, and Silicon Valley all posted double-digit repricings of their own.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Gold's odds of topping $5,000 by year's end climbed to 64%, up 8 points on the day and 19 over the week, rising in step with the odds of a 2026 rate hike, now 56% and up 7 points since yesterday.
Traders now see Anthropic's IPO market cap edging past SpaceX's, a 22-point swing in a week, even as OpenAI's Astra model surges toward release and Iran-related risk markets stay elevated.
Markets now give the US-Iran truce 96% odds of lasting to August 25, even as bets on an Iranian strike against an Arab neighbor climb toward month's end — a reminder that de-escalation and risk can price up together.
Traders lift Anthropic's odds of a $1.75 trillion valuation to 83% while pushing back their timeline for OpenAI's Astra and GPT-6, even as the Fed's September hold gains conviction.
Traders priced a confrontation between Iran and an Arab neighbor at 85% overnight while Israel's ruling party handed its primary to Eli Cohen in a near-total landslide. Peace-talk odds cooled in tandem, and NATO's drone-intercept tally crept toward certainty.
Traders lifted NATO's odds of downing a second Russian drone to 93%, up 30 points in a day. Diplomatic markets moved the opposite way, with Iran-Oman talks and any Russia-Ukraine meeting both sliding toward one in five.
Markets now favor Anthropic over SpaceX for 2026's largest IPO market cap, a stunning reversal from a week ago, even as Iran diplomacy drifts further into stalemate and Hollywood's late-summer numbers swing hard.
Traders have slashed the odds of a swift end to the Iranian blockade and now see no qualifying US-Iran meeting before October as more likely than not, even as a Wisconsin surge and a tightening IPO race show plenty of movement elsewhere.
Traders push the odds of no Fed move in September to 72%, up 24 points on the week, while an overnight reversal hands Google the lead over Alibaba as AI's second-best lab.
Traders lifted Venezuela's odds of recognizing Israel to 79% overnight, even as they slashed expectations for xAI's next Grok model and the Fed's September path firmed toward standing pat.
A week ago traders gave the blockade's end 77% odds by August 15; that's collapsed to 12%, even as October 31 confidence barely moved, down just 18 points to 72%. The market isn't losing faith in a resolution — it's rescheduling one.
Prediction markets pushed October-2026 Anthropic IPO odds to 62%, up 18 points on the day, while a swelling Bank of Japan rate-hike bet and a Rodri transfer that's now nearly certain rounded out a day of decisive repricing across sports and economics.
Traders now treat the US-Iran truce as nearly locked in, but confidence in the diplomatic scaffolding around it — a Hormuz shipping pact, a formal end to the blockade — is evaporating just as fast.
Markets slashed the odds of a near-term end to the Iranian blockade across every date on the board, even as confidence in the underlying US-Iran ceasefire stayed near multi-week highs. The reassessment came on the day's heaviest volume, over $1 million traded on the blockade question alone.
September's no-change probability jumped 14 points to 62% on the dataset's largest volume, while a quarter-point hike slid to 36% — even as Iran ceasefire markets pushed toward 90% and Minas Gerais swung hard toward Cleitinho Azevedo.
As the August 7 deadline passes without resolution, traders push the blockade's end toward mid-month and beyond, while a broader ceasefire holds near 80% and Rodri's Barcelona move crosses into near-certainty.
Real Madrid's transfer market flipped within a day, Vinicius Junior's odds soaring as Rodri's cratered. Elsewhere, Iran ceasefire bets cooled from last week's highs even as NVIDIA tightened its grip atop the market-cap table.
A cluster of Iran-linked contracts moved sharply and in unison, with traders now pricing meaningful odds that the Hormuz standoff resolves within weeks rather than dragging into autumn.
Traders now favor Apple for third place by August's end while abandoning hopes of the top spot; Alphabet climbs into second as Nvidia's lead looks untouched.
Hamas disarmament by December 31 now sits at 60% on prediction markets, up 47 points this week. Meanwhile traders have slashed odds of foreign intervention by August's end to just 8%, down 34 points, pushing the whole Gaza timeline toward year's end.
Polymarket's Iran-related contracts moved further overnight than in the past week combined, with ceasefire and blockade-end wagers each jumping over 20 points. Elsewhere, South Carolina Republicans have all but buried Mark Sanford's Senate bid.
Markets that spent the week pricing a Gaza-Iran thaw spent today unwinding it. Hamas disarmament odds fell 31 points and Israel-Iran ceasefire confidence eroded across every horizon, even as a transfer saga and a Fed bet moved the other way.
Disarmament and ceasefire markets surged together for the first time in months, while Michigan's Senate primary flipped underneath everyone's feet.
Traders now give Apple a 93% chance of ending July atop the corporate world, an 80-point weekly reversal that also flipped the race for second place. NVIDIA, briefly installed as the world's biggest company, has slid to just 8%.
Traders trimmed the odds of Israel-Iran and US-Iran ceasefires holding on nearly every dated contract, even as hopes for a next round of talks slipped further out of reach. Meanwhile Apple clawed back into a dead heat with Nvidia for the world's largest company, and 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' firmed toward blockbuster territory.
In a single trading day, traders swapped NVIDIA and Apple's rankings entirely — Apple surged to 79% favorite for largest company honors while NVIDIA cratered to 22%, a mirror-image reversal across both the top and second-place contracts.
A violent reversal in Rome's coaching race overshadowed a broader day of drift, as traders also chased Iran's ceasefire higher, cooled on Claude's current model, and bid up a Chinese chip IPO.
Traders pushed the odds of an Israel-Iran ceasefire lasting through July 31 to 84%, up 19 points in a day, while a broader Iran truce climbed across every horizon out to August 31. Elsewhere, the Fed's hawkish drift rolled into September and Lionel Messi's Ballon d'Or hopes kept fading.
Odds of a Fed rate hike jumped across every 2026 meeting this week, even as traders priced in a sharp escalation in Houthi-Saudi tensions and a stunning discount on LeBron James's next contract.
As hopes for a near-term Washington-Tehran ceasefire evaporate, traders now see Iranian action against a Gulf state as all but certain — even as longer-dated relief bets keep climbing.
A single day's trading sent invasion odds for the city rocketing from single digits to 94%, while bets on a Netanyahu visit to New York and LeBron's move to Miami both firmed sharply.
Traders now give a September rate hike 48% odds, up 12 points on the week and ahead of a no-change vote for the first time in weeks, while contracts on an Iran strike against a Gulf state jumped 16 points in a day to 68%. South Carolina Republicans are meanwhile coalescing around a single Senate nominee, and LeBron James's market for a Miami return keeps climbing.
Traders slashed the odds of a July rate rise to 7% even as shipping-lane and Iran-strike risk in the Gulf cooled sharply, while a stunning surge lifted a little-known South Carolina Republican to front-runner status.
Prediction markets now assign a 91% chance Shabana Mahmood becomes the UK's next Chancellor of the Exchequer, a probability that has surged 86 points in a week as rival Ed Miliband's odds collapsed 66 points to just 2%.
Markets now price an 84% chance of Iranian military action against a Gulf state, up 58 points this week, even as odds of a US-brokered halt collapsed to 10%.
Prediction markets flipped two leadership races overnight, naming Shabana Mahmood the clear favorite for UK Chancellor and Darline Graham Nordone the frontrunner for South Carolina's GOP Senate nod — both were afterthoughts a week ago.
Traders have all but erased a Trump-Netanyahu sit-down before July 20, even as they price an 80% chance of Iranian military action against a Gulf state today and watch Hormuz shipping forecasts keep sliding.
Traders now back Shabana Mahmood for Chancellor at 83%, up 49 points in a single day, as parallel bets on the Home and Foreign Secretary posts swung just as sharply toward Yvette Cooper and Ed Miliband.
Traders now give just 31% odds that 30 ships cross the Strait of Hormuz by month's end, down 63 points in a day. Meanwhile they price Iranian military action against a Gulf state at 94% for today and 74% for tomorrow — a pairing that reads less like noise than a coherent bet on escalation.
Traders have flipped their Fed bet: a 25-basis-point September hike is now favored at 51%, up from a minority view a week ago. Meanwhile South Carolina Republicans consolidated fast behind one Senate candidate, and Gulf shipping risk collided with its own deadline.
Contracts on Iranian military action against a Gulf state surged to 65-74% across near-term windows, even as traders' odds of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31 slid to 30%, down 43 points on the week.
Traders push the odds of a US blockade on Iran to 58% by year end while the chance of near-term peace talks craters to 7%, even as World Cup and Fed markets reprice elsewhere.
Traders erased expectations that the next GPT or Grok model will debut atop the leaderboard, while Google's math model vaulted past Anthropic's for the first time this cycle.
Prediction markets stood down from Gulf-strike bets across four separate dates this week, even as they pushed the Strait of Hormuz's return to normal further into the future — a sign traders see the acute crisis cooling but the shipping disruption lingering.
Odds of a 2026 rate hike jumped to 58%, up 9 points on the day, as traders across three separate Fed contracts abandoned bets on a steady pause. Gulf shipping risk and a scrambled AI release calendar added to the day's volatility.
Traders now put Marine Le Pen's odds of being the National Rally's 2027 presidential candidate at 94%, up 74 points in a day, as Jordan Bardella's collapse to 4% marks one of the sharpest reversals prediction markets have priced this year. The reversal follows her ineligibility-ban appeal market settling at 94% just as it hit its deadline.
Traders now see a 96% chance Graham Platner exits his race, a 67-point swing in a day, while Iran-shipping contracts spiked above 90% and Hormuz-normalization bets sank to 8%.
Traders slashed the odds of a July 10 US-Iran meeting to just 3%, a 42-point weekly collapse, even as they piled into a July 9 GPT-5.6 launch and a LeBron return to Cleveland.
A cluster of near-term bets repriced hard overnight: the AI industry's launch clock, Tehran's diplomatic calendar, Whitehall's next top diplomat, and LeBron James's next jersey all moved by double digits in a single day.
Traders have pushed the odds of an imminent GPT-5.6 launch to fresh highs even as they cut expectations for a Gulf de-escalation — a reminder that certainty in one market rarely travels to another. Elsewhere, crypto sale commitments, a Ukrainian frontline city, and LeBron's next jersey all saw double-digit swings.
Strait traffic odds halve in a week as Iran talk hopes implode; GPT-5.6 crystallises for Monday while the Fed holds firm.
A week-long collapse in Persian Gulf threat premia coincides with a late surge in AI model anticipation—and Colorado Republicans hand their primary to a 24-hour sensation.
Markets delivered two clean verdicts on July 1: one AI embargo apparently lifted, one diplomatic deadline quietly expired.
A single session repriced trans-Atlantic relations, big-tech rankings, and SpaceX's debut valuation all at once.
A single trading session wiped out the Lebanon-Israel normalization trade while Balkan finality and a British political countdown sharpened into focus.
A Serbian presidency ends and a Middle East diplomatic taboo shatters — at least in the estimation of prediction markets — as two 50-point-plus swings define the day.
Markets near-certify US forces are back in Venezuela while London's leadership crisis shifts from imminent to postponed; GPT-5.6 runs out of June.
The week's sharpest single-market reprice puts US military re-entry in Venezuela at near-certainty, while the Iran nuclear deal and GPT-5.6's June launch evaporate together.
Prediction markets spent the week pricing three simultaneous implosions: a British prime ministership, a commodity floor, and an OpenAI product roadmap.
Prediction markets spent the week pricing out optimism on both a nuclear accord and a British premiership — while the AI race ran a full lap without OpenAI or Google keeping up.
The crowd moved its odds; the bulletin below shows where.
The crowd moved its odds; the bulletin below shows where.
The crowd moved its odds; the bulletin below shows where.
The crowd moved its odds; the bulletin below shows where.
Markets erased majority odds of an imminent US-Iran meeting overnight, yet simultaneously raised the chances of a uranium deal. Across the Channel, traders now price Keir Starmer leaving office by July 31 at nearly three-to-one.
Markets wholesale repriced who signs the US-Iran deal overnight, while crude oil marches past $75 and the Fed turns hawkish.
Prediction markets have swung violently toward a US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough this week, dragging crude oil down with them. Peru's election margin, meanwhile, has been filed to the nearest decimal point.
Prediction markets recorded one of their largest geopolitical repricings in recent memory as the US-Iran diplomatic cluster moved en masse; crude oil followed within hours.
Prediction markets logged their largest single-session swing of the year on the US-Iran front, while crude oil priced out its geopolitical risk premium and Elon Musk's UFC attendance evaporated overnight.
A week of relentless buying has pushed US-Iran permanent peace to 50% and a nuclear deal to 66%, with traders treating June 30 as the most consequential date on the calendar.
Prediction markets swung decisively toward a US-Iran agreement this week, dragging crude toward $80 and reordering every adjacent market in its wake.
A single session repriced both stories: traders stripped Elon Musk of his own IPO ceremony role while simultaneously marking up the odds of a US-Iran nuclear agreement to levels not seen before this week.
Markets staged a near-total overnight reversal on US-Iran diplomacy: meeting probability hit 70%, a nuclear deal by June 30 reached 42%, and the airspace-closure threat across all dates fell to single digits.