Politics & Elections
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
96%→
98%
24h
Prediction markets swung decisively toward a US-Iran agreement this week, dragging crude toward $80 and reordering every adjacent market in its wake.
The week's dominant trade is legible in a single scan of the Hormuz cluster: traders now assign 72% probability to the US announcing a new Iran agreement or ceasefire extension by June 30, up 29 points on the week, with a permanent peace deal drawing 46% odds after surging 23 points in the same window. The Strait of Hormuz blockade — which markets give a 64% chance of being lifted by month-end, up 24 points on the week — appears to be the transmission mechanism, with Iranian oil sanction relief priced as the most likely US concession at 56%. The downstream signal appeared immediately in crude: the probability of oil touching a low of $80 by June 30 jumped 38 points on the week to 70%. Elsewhere, Peru's election has become a formality, with Keiko Fujimori at 98% after a 38-point weekly surge. And on the pitch, the US leapt 25 points in a single day to lead World Cup Group D at 62%.
The Iran complex is the week's defining trade. Markets assign 72% odds to a US ceasefire extension by June 30 (+29 pts/7d), 64% to the Hormuz blockade being lifted (+24 pts/7d), and 46% to a full permanent deal by month-end (+23 pts/7d). On specific concessions, traders see oil sanction relief as the most probable at 56% (+25 pts/7d), unfreezing Iranian assets at 46%, and troop withdrawal at 38% — the last gaining 16 points in a single session. Near-term meeting odds, however, retreated: a diplomatic encounter by June 14 fell to 6%.
Peru's presidential race has reached effective resolution: markets price Keiko Fujimori at 98%, a 38-point weekly gain that leaves little interpretive ambiguity. In the UK, Makerfield favours Andy Burnham at 74% despite a 9-point weekly slide, while Édouard Philippe edges upward at 22% for next French president. Brazil's Lula holds at 48% as rivals fragment. Keir Starmer's odds of departing before October now stand at 77% — a market treating longevity, not departure, as the surprise.
Oil's repricing is the week's sharpest macro signal: 70% probability of crude hitting $80 to the downside by June 30, up 38 points on the week, almost certainly reflecting anticipated Iranian supply. SpaceX's IPO bell ceremony saw dramatic collapses across named candidates — Antonio Gracias fell 52 points in a day to 2% — suggesting the market expects a surprise guest. The Fed rate hike probability for 2026 slipped 10 points to 38%, and June annual inflation is now most likely to print at 3.8% (34%, up 21 points today).
Markets have effectively crowned today's AI winner: claude-opus-4-6-thinking sits at 91% for best model on June 13, up 12 points on the day. At the company level, Anthropic commands 89% probability of holding the top AI model by end of June, with Google at 8% and OpenAI at 4%. The Tesla-SpaceX merger remains speculative at best, drawing just 36% odds of a formal announcement even by December 31.
The United States surged 25 points in 24 hours to claim 62% probability of winning World Cup Group D, with Turkey falling to 34%. On tour, Cameron Young emerged as FedEx Cup Playoffs favourite at 25% (+18 pts/24h), with Tommy Fleetwood close behind at 16% after a 13-point jump; Scottie Scheffler slipped 6 points on the week to 23%. In Counter-Strike, Vitality leads IEM Cologne at 42% but Team Spirit has closed to 36% after gaining 16 points on the week.
'Disclosure Day' is now priced at 56% to open between $43–47 million this weekend, up 20 points on the day, with the over-$47m outcome collapsing to 12% — the crowd has found a number it believes in. For the full year, Toy Story 5 leads at 24% for highest-grossing film of 2026, though it shed 7 points today. The market for US alien confirmation by year-end sits at 10%, down 5 points on the week — apparently 'Disclosure Day' is not swaying the epistemics.
If the Iran deal closes, the Hormuz blockade lifts, and crude hits $80, the most prescient analyst of the week will have been a futures contract.