What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Iran Detente Odds Jump as Traders Price In Blockade's End
Polymarket's Iran-related contracts moved further overnight than in the past week combined, with ceasefire and blockade-end wagers each jumping over 20 points. Elsewhere, South Carolina Republicans have all but buried Mark Sanford's Senate bid.
Overnight, traders repriced the Middle East. The market on a US-Iran ceasefire by July 31 rocketed to 56%, up 45 points in a single day and 17 over the week, while contracts on Washington declaring an end to the Iranian blockade jumped in lockstep — 38% for August 15 (+30 points), 52% for August 31 (+25), and 94% by December (+20). The Israel-Iran ceasefire-continuation market echoed the move, up 24 points to 67% for an August 31 horizon. It is a sharp reversal from the caution that dominated recent days. Domestic politics moved just as violently: Mark Sanford's bid for the South Carolina Republican Senate nomination has collapsed to 2%, down 48 points on the week, as Darline Graham Nordone consolidates a 62% lead. In sports, Mohamed Salah's presumed destination flipped hard toward Turkey's Süper Lig, now 70% after a 36-point one-day swing, at the Saudi Pro League's expense.
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?
14%→97%7d
$61,490 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
11%→56%24h
$1,023,236 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
14%→64%7d
$87,006 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Spirit Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?
40%→78%7d
$88,318 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
50%→2.1%7d
$7,742 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?
37%→79%7d
$11,713 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?
42%→5.9%7d
$25,225 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
66%→97%7d
$30,111 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Every Iran-related contract moved the same direction today. A US-Iran ceasefire by July 31 surged to 56% (+45 pts/24h), with longer horizons following: 68% by August 14, 73% by August 31. Markets pricing an end to the Iranian blockade jumped across every date, from 38% (August 15, +30) to 94% (December 31, +20). The Israel-Iran ceasefire-continuation contract rose 24 points to 67% for August 31. Only the NATO-Russia clash market held its recent retreat, sitting at 6% for August, down 37 points on the week.
August 315.9%▼ 37 7dOctober 3114%▼ 3 24hDecember 3126%▼ 1 24h
Politics & Elections
South Carolina's Republican Senate primary reordered itself: Mark Sanford's odds collapsed to 2% (-48 pts/7d), while Darline Graham Nordone holds a commanding 62% lead. Traders continue to treat Abdul El-Sayed as the near-certain winner of Michigan's Democratic Senate primary at 97%, though that contract resolves within two days and the move likely reflects the approaching deadline as much as new information. FIFA's Gianni Infantino saw his ouster odds tick up to 32% (+7 pts/24h).
Alphabet's odds of ending August as the world's second-largest company climbed to 34%, up 22 points on the week, narrowing the gap with Apple's 52%. Nvidia held its lead for the largest-company crown at 78% (+6 pts/24h). Elon Musk's net-worth contract swung sharply as its July 31 deadline arrived, with the sub-$0.70T outcome settling near 79% after a 21-point same-day retreat.
Traders remain convinced Anthropic holds the best model on the market, pricing it at 94% for end-of-August and 90% for end-of-September, both ticking modestly higher. The next Google Gemini Pro release window slid past its earliest marker — August 7 fell to just 6% — as probability mass shifted to August 14 (61%) and August 21 (80%), a deadline effect more than a signal of delay.
Mohamed Salah's next club swung hard toward Turkey's Süper Lig, up 36 points in a day to 70%, at the direct expense of the Saudi Pro League, down 24 points to 19%. Spirit's odds to win BLAST Bounty Season 2 extended their climb to 78%, up 39 points on the week. Harry Kane remains the trader favorite for the Ballon d'Or at 54%, up 10 points on the week over Lamine Yamal's 21%.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day's opening-weekend contracts moved decisively toward the top of their ranges as the event itself arrives — the $350m+ outcome reached 97% and the $350-360m band hit 70%, both consistent with a deadline resolving in about 18 hours rather than fresh box-office news. Traders now give it a 58% chance of topping Avengers: Endgame's opening record, up 18 points on the day.