What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Apple Concedes the Crown, Bets Shift to Bronze
Traders now favor Apple for third place by August's end while abandoning hopes of the top spot; Alphabet climbs into second as Nvidia's lead looks untouched.
Markets restaged the corporate hierarchy today: Apple's odds of reclaiming the world's largest company by market cap by August 31 collapsed to 10%, down 8 points on the day and 39 over the week, while traders instead crowned it a lock for third place at 54% (+23 points/24h, +48/7d). Alphabet, meanwhile, edged into second-place favorite at 47% (+12/+37), leaving Nvidia's 78% claim on the top spot largely undisturbed. Off Wall Street, "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" swung past $900 million in domestic gross expectations, now priced at 73% (+33/+59) with three weeks still on the clock. And in Gaza diplomacy, Hamas disarmament by year's end held at 51% even after a 10-point daily pullback, still up 34 points on the week. Google's next Gemini Pro model, meanwhile, jumped to 72% (+33 points) for an August 10 release.
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
14%→73%7d
$67,699 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
6%→54%7d
$7,473 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
48%→9.5%7d
$17,503 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
17%→51%7d
$39,307 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
10%→47%7d
$15,143 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?
39%→72%24h
$13,856 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
30%→1.7%7d
$34,514 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?
26%→3.9%7d
$56,255 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Hamas disarmament by December 31 sits at 51%, a 10-point daily retreat that leaves the seven-day gain (+34) largely intact — traders still price eventual compliance, just not on anyone's rushed timeline. Elsewhere, Elon Musk vaulted to 48% (+37) as Trump's most likely August meeting partner, eclipsing Zelenskyy (10%) and Netanyahu (3%). North Korea watchers converged on a single missile test this month at 44% (+22). US-Iran talks keep sliding toward September 30 (64%) as earlier dates fade with the calendar.
Sweden's Magdalena Andersson strengthened her hold on the premiership, now 89% (+8/24h, +10/7d) as Kristersson faded to 9%. In Clacton, Count Binface's second-place bid firmed to 96% (+4/+18). Washington's Clarity Act continues to lose ground, down to 26% (-3/-10) for passage this year. South Carolina's Republican Senate primary remains a Nordone-led race at 64%. Michigan's and Kansas's primaries resolved as their deadlines arrived, with El-Sayed and Holscher confirmed at 98% and 90%.
Russell Fry17%▲ 13 7dDarline Graham Nordone64%▲ 2 24hRalph Norman18%▲ 3 24h
Economy & Crypto
The corporate leaderboard reshuffled hard: Apple's shot at largest-company status by August 31 sank to 10% (-8/-39) even as its case for third place strengthened to 54% (+23/+48). Alphabet overtook the second-place conversation at 47% (+12/+37), while Nvidia's 78% grip on first looks secure. Inflation traders nudged toward a 3.3% July print (36%, +5/24h) over 3.4% (42%). The Fed-cut outlook barely moved — 89% odds of zero cuts in 2026, the year's consensus holding firm.
Google's next Gemini Pro model rocketed to 72% (+33) for an August 10 debut, pulling probability away from the 11th, 12th and 13th alike. GPT-6's own release odds held near 62% for a September 30 window. Anthropic remains the trader consensus for best model both by month's end (94%) and year's end (70%, +7/7d), with Google a distant second in both frames.
The WSOP Main Event field tightened into a real contest, with Rami Hammoud (30%, +16), Lauri Saaskilahti (26%, +20) and Han Feng (21%, +15) all surging together. Real Madrid firmed as Vinicius Junior's likeliest transfer destination at 72% (+6/+2), squeezing Arsenal down to 25%. Harry Kane's Ballon d'Or favoritism held at 53% (+7/7d), while the Dodgers' World Series odds ticked up to 38% (+6/7d).
Kansas City Chiefs8.6%▲ 2 24hPhiladelphia Eagles4.5%Jacksonville Jaguars2.9%Detroit Lions4.2%
Culture
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" traders turned decisively bullish on a $900 million-plus domestic haul, pricing it at 73% (+33/24h, +59/7d) as the $800-900 million band collapsed to 24%. The film's status as 2026's highest grosser overall firmed to 91% (+10/7d). Emmy bettors split on "Hacks": the 4-5 win band jumped to 40% (+13) while 2-3 wins slipped to 43% (-10).