What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Gulf De-Escalation Bets Surge as Traders Price an Iran Endgame
A cluster of Iran-linked contracts moved sharply and in unison, with traders now pricing meaningful odds that the Hormuz standoff resolves within weeks rather than dragging into autumn.
Three unrelated markets are suddenly narrating the same story. Traders pushed the odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by July 31 to 78%, up 27 points on the day and 36 over the week, while a formal end to the Hormuz blockade by August 31 climbed to 84% (+24 pts/24h, +34 pts/7d) and a broader agreement by August 15 leapt 40 points in a single session to 67%. Hamas disarmament odds followed the same drift, up 11 points on the day to 62%. Away from the Gulf, conviction moved just as fast: Squid's valuation cleared $75M with 92% confidence, up 55 points in 24 hours, and Spider-Man: Brand New Day's shot at a $900M domestic haul firmed to 80%, up 61 points over the week. Calendars are converging, but so, increasingly, is sentiment.
Will Haley Stevens win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
5.2%→98%24h
$6,214 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Anyone's Legend Win the Shortest Game in LPL 2026 Split 3?
13%→72%24h
$28,476 traded · 24h
Culture
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
19%→80%7d
$16,329 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Squid FDV above $75M one day after launch
38%→92%24h
$28,190 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
32%→76%7d
$158,577 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
16%→62%7d
$52,918 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?
50%→5.5%7d
$51,904 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?
66%→18%7d
$13,214 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
The Gulf de-escalation trade dominated geopolitics. A ceasefire by July 31 rose to 78% (+27 pts/24h, +36 pts/7d), an end to the blockade by August 31 to 84% (+24 pts/24h, +34 pts/7d), and a formal Hormuz agreement by August 15 surged 40 points in a day to 67%. Hamas disarmament by year-end climbed to 62% (+11 pts/24h, +46 pts/7d). Traders also cut a zero-ship Hormuz outcome to 5% — though with that market's deadline just weeks off, some of the move is simply the calendar closing in.
Beyond a Macomb County result locked at 98% ahead of its deadline, Minas Gerais stayed genuinely contested: Cleitinho Azevedo rose 17 points on the day to 18% while Alexandre Kalil slipped 8 points to 17%. South Carolina's Republican Senate primary saw Darline Graham Nordone's lead narrow slightly to 60%. And the Fed's September call flipped toward inertia, with 'no change' overtaking a 25bps hike, 50% to 48% — a seven-point swing toward standing pat.
Crypto conviction outran caution: Squid's fully diluted valuation above $75M hit 92% (+55 pts/24h, +27 pts/7d), with the $100M threshold up 34 points to 54%. NVIDIA remained the favorite for 'largest company by August' at 84%, and its odds for the December crown firmed to 62% (+6 pts/24h, +13 pts/7d). Fed-hike pricing eased on both fronts — September down 7 points to 48%, October down 4 to 58% — while July inflation bets nudged toward the higher 3.4% print, up 5 points to 46%.
AI markets pulled in different directions. Anthropic's hold on 'best model' through August stayed dominant at 94%, but OpenAI surged 16 points to 34% on the narrower LiveBench coding crown for September, closing on Anthropic's 59%. Gemini Pro's next release got priced later in the day's trading — its by-August-14 odds fell 14 points to 76% — while GPT-6 speculation stayed anchored on December 31, now at 91%. Nothing here resolves soon; the crowd is simply still arguing about sequencing.
Esports produced the day's sharpest number: Anyone's Legend jumped 60 points to 72% favorite for LPL's shortest game. WSOP's Main Event tightened into a real contest, Lucas Jumalon up 28 points to 60% and Lauri Saaskilahti up 15 to 40%. Vinicius Junior's transfer market swung toward a move, Arsenal gaining 14 points to 39% as Real Madrid's odds slipped 12 points to 60% — still favored, but no longer comfortably.
Los Angeles Dodgers40%▲ 1 24hNew York Yankees9.5%▼ 2 24hBoston Red Sox6.5%▲ 3 7dHouston Astros3%▲ 1 24h
Culture
Spider-Man: Brand New Day kept compounding: its odds of a $900M+ domestic gross rose to 80%, up 61 points over the week, and the film is now priced as a near-lock for 2026's box-office crown at 90%. 'DTF St. Louis' picked up 19 points on the day to 98% for an Emmy count of 0-1 — a modest expectation the market now treats as all but settled.