What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Will Haley Stevens win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primar…
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will Haley Stevens win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? moved from 5% to 98% over the last 24h; Will Anyone's Legend Win the Shortest Game in LPL 2026 Split 3? moved from 13% to 72% over the last 24h; Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? moved from 19% to 80% over the last 7d; Squid FDV above $75M one day after launch moved from 38% to 92% over the last 24h. Full section tables below.
Will Haley Stevens win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
5.2%→98%24h
$6,214 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Anyone's Legend Win the Shortest Game in LPL 2026 Split 3?
13%→72%24h
$28,476 traded · 24h
Culture
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
19%→80%7d
$16,329 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Squid FDV above $75M one day after launch
38%→92%24h
$28,190 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
32%→76%7d
$158,577 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
16%→62%7d
$52,918 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?
50%→5.5%7d
$51,904 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?
66%→18%7d
$13,214 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? — August 15 at 67% (+40 pts/24h); US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? — August 15 at 76% (+31 pts/24h, +44 pts/7d).
Markets price: Squid FDV above ___ one day after launch? — $75M at 92% (+55 pts/24h, +27 pts/7d); Largest Company end of August? — Apple at 8% (-1 pts/24h, -40 pts/7d).
Markets price: Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...? — August 13 at 2% (-5 pts/24h, -48 pts/7d); Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...? — August 21 at 85% (-8 pts/24h, +33 pts/7d).
Markets price: Which Team Will Win the Shortest LPL Game — Anyone's Legend at 72% (+60 pts/24h); WSOP Main Event Winner — Lucas Jumalon at 60% (+28 pts/24h, +26 pts/7d).
Los Angeles Dodgers40%▲ 1 24hNew York Yankees9.5%▼ 2 24hBoston Red Sox6.5%▲ 3 7dHouston Astros3%▲ 1 24h
Culture
Markets price: "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? — 900m+ at 80% (+7 pts/24h, +61 pts/7d); How many Emmys will “DTF St. Louis” win? — 0-1 at 98% (+19 pts/24h).