What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Israel Airspace Closure Nears Certainty as Anthropic IPO Odds Cool
Traders push Israeli airspace-closure odds to 82% as the month's deadline nears, while conviction in an Anthropic IPO by October 31 cools 28 points over the week. Elsewhere, Carlos Alcaraz tightens his grip on the US Open and Sachsen-Anhalt's AfD landslide simply confirms itself as votes are counted.
Traders now put Israeli airspace closure by September 30 at 82%, up 15 points on the day and 74 over the week — the sharpest sustained conviction shift in the geopolitics book. Lebanon strike markets echo the mood: contracts for action on September 9 through 13 all cluster near 78-80%, each up roughly 26-38 points on the day. Elsewhere, the crowd is cooling on Anthropic: odds of an IPO by October 31 have slid 28 points over the week to 62%, even as a December 31 close holds at 90%. On the tennis courts, Carlos Alcaraz's US Open title odds climbed to 57%, up 29 points over the week and 10 on the day, tightening his grip on the men's draw. In Germany, Sachsen-Anhalt's vote count is simply catching up with reality: AfD's 25%+ margin jumped to 98% as ballots are tallied.
Will the AfD win the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary election by at least 25%?
7%→98%24h
$54,232 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Linke win less than 9% of all valid second votes?
4.9%→95%24h
$47,139 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?
7.5%→82%7d
$157,813 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
73%→18%24h
$20,619 traded · 24h
Culture
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1?
46%→6.5%24h
$8,044 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?
28%→57%7d
$216,384 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 9?
50%→78%24h
$31,401 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
90%→62%7d
$5,450 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Israeli airspace closure by September 30 is now priced at 82%, up 74 points over the week as traders converge on near-certainty. Lebanon action markets for September 9-13 all sit near 78-80%, each surging 26-38 points in a day. A US-Iran ceasefire by September 18 firmed to 72% (+5), while the Israel-Iran ceasefire holding through September 30 eased slightly to 84%. Hormuz management odds with Oman crept up across every date on the board, still long-shots by October 31 at 40%.
Sachsen-Anhalt's results are simply arriving: AfD's 25%+ margin swung to 98% and Linke's sub-9% finish to 95%, both snapping toward certainty as votes are counted, while Ulrich Siegmund overtook Sven Schulze for Minister-President, 59% to 18%. In Sweden, the Liberals' odds of winning seats rose to 46%, up 30 points over the week. Romania's premiership race tightened too — Alexandru Nazare leads at 47%, but Eugen Tomac gained 16 points on the day to reach 22%.
Traders are cooling on an Anthropic IPO by October 31, down 28 points over the week to 62%, even as a year-end listing still holds at 90%. The Fed cut path stayed frozen at 93% odds of zero 2026 cuts. Oura's $15-17.5B IPO cap band rose to 30%, up 16 points on the week, while Base's token launch remains seen as a 2027 story at best, with only 8% odds of a 2026 debut.
OpenAI's Astra debuts amid falling expectations: odds of a 1500+ Text Arena score dropped 18 points to 22%, with the 1490+ tier down 13 to 52%. Apple's foldable iPhone is now seen pricing at $2,100+ with 72% confidence (+6) rather than the pricier tiers, though a launch by September 30 firmed to 60% (+10). Anthropic still commands 86% odds as the best model maker by month's end, while OpenAI's pre-2027 AGI claim ticked up to 28%.
Carlos Alcaraz's US Open odds jumped to 57%, up 29 points over the week and 10 on the day. In F1, Kimi Antonelli's title odds climbed to 86% (+15 on the day, +11 on the week) as rivals Norris and Hamilton faded to 2% each. On the women's side, Aryna Sabalenka leads at 30% (+4). Arsenal (52%) and Barcelona (66%) remain favorites for their respective 2027 titles, both ticking modestly higher over the week.
MrBeast's next video saw its 90M+ week-one view odds collapse 40 points to just 6%, as traders piled into the 70-90M range instead — the 80-90M band up 10 points to 49%. 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' domestic gross odds firmed toward the $940-950M band at 62%, with the sub-$940M outcome nearly eliminated, down 23 points over the week to 2%.