What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Traders Now Bet the Fed Hikes, Not Cuts, in September
Fed-hike odds jumped to 80% on the day the US-Iran ceasefire firmed further and OpenAI's Astra model face-planted on its Arena debut.
Traders spent the day rewriting their Fed playbook: the probability of a 25-basis-point hike after the September meeting jumped to 80%, up 18 points on the day and 29 on the week, dragging the 2026 hike-count market to a dead heat between one and two increases (43% each). In the Middle East, optimism split by geography — the US-Iran ceasefire pause firmed to 86%, up 21 points on the day and 43 on the week, even as traders slashed the odds of an Israel-Lebanon meeting by September 15 to 46%, down a sharp 34 points, while later-date versions of the same market held near 85%. Elsewhere, OpenAI's Astra model cratered on its Arena debut, with markets for a 1480+ score collapsing to just 2%, down 69 points overnight. On the calendar's edge, Alexander Zverev's US Open title odds rose to 58% as Sunday's final approaches.
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?
72%→1.9%7d
$8,869 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
42%→86%7d
$109,415 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?
20%→58%7d
$314,905 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
51%→80%7d
$5,521,741 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open?
7.3%→42%7d
$39,740 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will SPD win at least 31% of all valid second votes?
43%→82%7d
$8,300 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
50%→78%7d
$149,397 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?
80%→46%24h
$21,238 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
The Iran ceasefire pause strengthened across every date bracket, settling near 85-86% with the September 4 version up 21 points on the day and 43 on the week. Israel's airspace-closure market ticked to 98% (+2/+27). But traders turned skeptical on near-term diplomacy: an Israel-Lebanon meeting by September 15 fell to 46%, down 34 points overnight, even as the September 30 version held at 86%. The Iran-Oman Hormuz management market gained 6 points to 56% for October.
October 3120%▲ 1 24hDecember 3126%▲ 10 7dSeptember 308.9%▲ 4 7d
Politics & Elections
Washington dominated the tape: markets now put a September Fed rate increase at 80%, up 18 points on the day. In Germany, SPD's Mecklenburg-Vorpommern vote share above 31% climbed to 82% (+6/+39), and Linke's Berlin lead firmed to 64% (+5/+22). Brazil's presidential race tightened to a near coin flip, with Flávio Bolsonaro at 49% against Lula's 48%. Sweden's premiership market swung toward Ulf Kristersson (28%, +11) as Sunday's vote nears, cutting into Magdalena Andersson's lead (72%, -12).
The rate-hike repricing ran deep: traders gave a September hike 78% odds (+16/+29) and an October one 84% (+8/+22), while the tally for 2026 hikes flipped from a one-hike lean to a 43-43 tie with two hikes. The 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5.0% held at 84% (+48 on the week). Anthropic's IPO-by-November-30 market rose to 92% (+8), and STRC's push to $100 by year-end gained 8 points to 82%.
OpenAI's Astra had a rough debut: markets pricing an Arena Leaderboard score of 1480+ collapsed to 2%, down 69 points on the day and 71 on the week. Anthropic, meanwhile, tightened its grip on 'best AI model' honors for both month-end (96%, +7) and full-year 2026 (68%, +6) markets. The next Millennium Prize solve stayed contested, with Hodge Conjecture (42%) narrowly ahead of Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer (36%, +9).
With Sunday's finals approaching, Alexander Zverev's US Open title odds rose to 58% (+7 on the day, +37 on the week) against Ben Shelton's 42%, while Aryna Sabalenka pulled ahead of Elena Rybakina, 56% to 42%, in the women's draw. Kimi Antonelli's F1 title odds edged up to 87% (+2/+15), and Harry Kane's Ballon d'Or favoritism eased slightly to 62% (-5 on the week).
Box-office markets swung hard on 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day': its 7th-weekend take under $9 million jumped to 96% (+20 overnight), while its path to a $950-960 million domestic total slipped to 52% (-16) in favor of the $940-950 million bracket (46%, +17). Stephen Colbert's variety-series Emmy odds held at 74%. A market on Christ's return before 2027 sat unmoved at 2%.
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”74%▼ 2 24h“The Daily Show”3.4%▲ 1 24h“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”7.4%▼ 1 24h“Saturday Night Live”3.9%▲ 2 7d