What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
AI Valuation Optimism Cools as Traders Trim Anthropic, OpenAI Odds
Prediction markets pulled back from a week-long AI-IPO rally, trimming Anthropic and OpenAI valuation odds even as their conviction on a September Fed hike kept hardening.
Prediction markets turned cautious on Silicon Valley's IPO parade even as they hardened their view on the Federal Reserve. Anthropic's odds of an IPO by December 15 slipped to 84%, down 6 points on the day after a 33-point weekly run-up, while traders trimmed OpenAI's shot at a $1.25 trillion valuation to 52% (down 10 points) and its IPO-by-March-2027 odds to 34% (down 9). Meanwhile the Fed repricing that dominated the week kept broadening: markets now put a September hike at 78% (+29 points on the week) and see 86% odds of at least one hike in 2026 (+15). Geopolitics offered the week's steadier trend — traders pushed the odds of a US-Iran ceasefire beginning by September 18 to 90% (+24 points on the week), even as they cut the chance Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline reopens by September 15 to 31%, a 24-point same-day drop.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
50%→20%7d
$2,043,476 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?
24%→58%7d
$174,098 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?
66%→97%7d
$170,989 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?
51%→84%7d
$6,030 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?
10%→39%7d
$17,178 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
50%→78%7d
$17,076 traded · 24h
Culture
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 17.5 and 20 million views on day 1?
18%→46%24h
$5,434 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
The Middle East de-escalation trade keeps advancing: a US-Iran ceasefire beginning by September 18 rose to 90% (+4 points on the day, +24 on the week), while Israel's airspace-closure market sits at 97% (+30 points on the week) ahead of its September 30 deadline. The Iran-Oman Hormuz management pact gained to 39% (+4/+29). But not every deadline is moving the same direction — Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline restart by September 15 cratered 24 points in a day to 31%, even as the September 30 contract held at 86%, suggesting traders now expect a later reopening.
The hawkish repricing of the Fed keeps widening: 'no change' in September collapsed to 20% (-29 points on the week) as a 25-basis-point hike climbed to 80%, while October-hike odds rose to 38% (+10) and a 2026 hike now sits at 86% (+15). Elsewhere, Sweden's premiership race swung 14 points toward Ulf Kristersson (now 34%) as Magdalena Andersson's lead narrowed to 66%, and Brazil's presidential race tightened further, with Flávio Bolsonaro at 50% against Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's 48%.
Traders took some chips off the AI-IPO table. Anthropic's odds of going public by December 15 eased to 84% (-6 points on the day) after climbing 33 points over the week, while OpenAI's shot at a $1.25 trillion valuation by year-end fell to 52% (-10) and its $1.5 trillion odds slipped to 33% (-6). OpenAI's IPO-by-March-2027 odds dropped to 34% (-9). None of this touched the Fed story: a September hike held at 78% (+29 points on the week).
Markets remain lopsided on AI supremacy: Anthropic is seen as having the best model by month's end at 96% (+13 points on the week), leaving Google a distant 2%. With Anthropic's own IPO odds cooling elsewhere in today's data, traders appear to be separating confidence in model quality from confidence in near-term public-market timing.
Alexander Zverev's US Open title odds jumped to 58% (+34 points on the week) as the men's final approaches — a deadline effect as much as a form one. Elsewhere, Kimi Antonelli's F1 title odds held at 86% (+15 points on the week), and Arsenal's EPL 2027 title chances rose to 58% (+5 on the day, +10 on the week).
Los Angeles Rams10%▼ 4 24hSan Francisco 49ers6.7%▲ 1 24hDallas Cowboys4.9%Minnesota Vikings1.9%
Culture
Hollywood casting chatter moved markets: 'no Bond chosen' rose to 36% (+15 points on the day) as Jack Lowden's odds fell 17 points to 20%, suggesting traders are losing confidence in a near-term announcement. MrBeast Gaming's next video views split narrowly between the 15-17.5M and 17.5-20M brackets, both swinging roughly 29 points on the day as the market's two-day resolution window closes in.
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”74%▼ 10 7d“Jimmy Kimmel Live!”6.8%▲ 2 24h“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”4.5%▼ 3 24h“The Daily Show”5.6%▲ 2 24h