Politics & Elections
Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes?
8.5%→
98%
7d
Odds of a 25-basis-point increase have climbed to 80% on the September contract and 89% for the year, a seven-day swing traders are treating as a live call rather than a formality. Elsewhere, Gulf diplomacy cooled as fast as it warmed a week ago.
Interest-rate traders spent the week flipping their base case: markets now put a 25-basis-point September hike at 80%, up 32 points over seven days, with the case for any 2026 hike climbing to 89% (+18 points). That repricing landed alongside a scramble in Gulf diplomacy. The US-Iran ceasefire held firm at 92% (+5 points on the day, +47 over the week), but confidence that Iran and Oman will formalize a Hormuz management pact evaporated — the September 21 contract fell to 11% (-28 points), September 30 to 18% (-24 points), and even the October 31 date slid to 39% (-17 points). Riyadh's East-West pipeline restart by September 30 dropped just as sharply, to 46% (-40 points), while longer-dated Russia-Ukraine ceasefire odds for 2027 kept climbing, up as much as 26 points over the week. In Stockholm, ballots settling pushed Sweden's governing math toward near-certainty as counting concluded.
The US-Iran ceasefire strengthened across every dated contract, with the September 18 version reaching 94% (+4 points on the day, +23 over the week) as traders extend the truce's shelf life. But adjacent diplomacy cooled hard: Iran-Oman Hormuz management odds fell 17-28 points across all three dated markets, and Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline restart by September 30 dropped 40 points to 46%. Longer-dated Russia-Ukraine ceasefire contracts bucked the trend, climbing as much as 26 points over the week to 70% for a deal by December 2027. Ukraine-targets-Moscow odds fell to 16%, though that contract resolves within two days.
Fed watchers dominate: the September decision contract now favors a 25-basis-point hike at 80% (+31 points over the week) over no change at 20%, though the market resolves within 48 hours. In Sweden, vote-count finality rather than fresh sentiment drove the day's biggest swings — SD's 16-18% vote-share contract jumped to 98% (+81 points on the day) and Andersson's odds of becoming PM rose to 92% (+26 points) as Kristersson's collapsed to 8%, both markets already past their nominal deadline.
Rate-hike conviction broadened beyond the September meeting: October's contract rose to 84% (+22 points on the week) and the full-year 2026 hike probability reached 89% (+18 points). In the IPO race, SpaceX overtook Anthropic as the favorite for 2026's largest listing, 54% to 46%, a swing of 9 and 8 points respectively on the day. Anthropic's own IPO-by-December-2026 odds ticked up to 86% (+2 points), even as the November 15 date slipped 4 points to 76%.
Anthropic's grip on the best-AI-model title tightened to 96% (+10 points over the week), leaving Google's case at just 3%. With no rival market challenging the frame, traders appear to treat September's model rankings as effectively decided a fortnight out — a rare pocket of consensus amid an otherwise turbulent day for rate and geopolitical contracts.
Kimi Antonelli's F1 title odds firmed to 91% (+5 points on the day and the week), while George Russell slid to 2%. In the NFL MVP race, Caleb Williams gained the most ground of the week, rising 8 points to 15% and closing in on the favorites. Paris Saint-Germain's Ligue 1 repeat bid strengthened to 82% (+3 points), and Arsenal held its Premier League favorite status at 57% despite a marginal daily dip.
MrBeast's gaming-channel viewership market swung hard: the 40-45M bracket surged to 50% (+20 points on the day) as the 35-40M band collapsed to 18% (-38 points). The next Bond race tightened around Jack Lowden, up 25 points to 45%, while 'no Bond chosen' odds eased to 27%. The Emmys' variety-series contract still favors Colbert at 72%, though that figure has drifted down 14 points over the week as the award, due within 14 hours, nears its close.
Central bankers take note: the crowd has moved on from asking whether you'll hike, to asking why you haven't already.
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