What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Caracas Succession Bet Flips: Rodríguez Rises as Maduro Fades
Polymarket traders now give Delcy Rodríguez a 43% chance of leading Venezuela by year-end, up 32 points this week, while Nicolás Maduro's odds have slipped to 55%, down 29 points. Elsewhere, chess, entertainment, and a Senate race posted the sharpest swings of the day.
Venezuela's succession question has quietly repriced. Traders now put Delcy Rodríguez at 43% to lead the country by year-end, up 32 points over the week and 3 more just today, while Nicolás Maduro's own odds have fallen to 55%, down 29 points on the week. Elsewhere the board is just as restless. At the Chess Olympiad, Uzbekistan has surged to 57% favorite for the Open title, up 20 points on the day and 34 on the week, as India's hopes collapsed to 10%, down 22 points. MrBeast's next upload is now given a 74% chance of landing 70–80 million first-week views, up 48 points overnight, at the expense of the 60–70 million band, down 42. And in Ohio, Sherrod Brown has pulled to 64% in the Senate race, up 9 points on the day, as Jon Husted slides to 35%.
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
25%→95%7d
$106,230 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
14%→97%7d
$16,982 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by September 30?
15%→91%24h
$28,638 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
60%→3.5%7d
$12,800 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?
27%→79%24h
$33,461 traded · 24h
Culture
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?
26%→74%24h
$10,640 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Uzbekistan win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?
23%→57%7d
$8,031 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
50%→26%7d
$19,614 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Venezuela's leadership odds moved sharply, with Delcy Rodríguez climbing to 43% (+32 pts/7d) as Nicolás Maduro slipped to 55% (-29 pts/7d). In Russia, United Russia's 340-354 seat outcome jumped to 95% (+54 pts/24h) and turnout to 97% (+18 pts/24h) as Sunday's election results finalize — more calendar than news. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz split traders: the 20-24 vessel band rose to 42% (+21 pts/24h, +26 pts/7d) against a steady 25-29 band at 44%.
Ohio's Senate race tilted toward Sherrod Brown, now 64% (+9 pts/24h, +10 pts/7d) over Jon Husted's 35% (-10 pts/24h). Romania's premiership stayed muddled: Alexandru Nazare ticked up to 26% (+3 pts/24h) but remains down 24 points on the week, while Siegfried Mureșan gained 16 points over seven days to 18%. Quebec's PQ extended its lead to 92% (+10 pts/24h), and traders now favor Democrats to hold the Senate overall at 64% (+4 pts/24h).
Anthropic's IPO timeline keeps sliding rightward: an October 31 listing is down to just 4% (-57 pts/7d), while traders now weight November 30 at 57% (+6 pts/24h) and December 15 at 74%, itself down 11 points on the week — the market isn't giving up on a 2026 float, just pushing the date. Fed traders are near-unanimous on zero rate cuts this year, 96% (+2 pts/7d).
The next Claude Opus model is priced at 79% (+52 pts/24h) to ship today, September 22 — a sharp overnight swing as its own deadline arrives. Traders still see an 82% chance OpenAI claims another Millennium Prize solution by the end of 2027, and give an Anthropic 'lab leak' by mid-2027 just 6% (-4 pts/24h).
Uzbekistan's Chess Olympiad odds jumped to 57% (+20 pts/24h, +34 pts/7d) for the Open title as India cratered to 10% (-22 pts/24h, -20 pts/7d). In football markets, Arsenal ticked up to 48% (+2 pts/24h) for the 2027 EPL title over Manchester City's 38%, while Bayern Munich remains a heavy 84% favorite for another Bundesliga crown.
MrBeast's next upload swung hard toward blockbuster territory, now 74% (+48 pts/24h) to pull 70-80 million first-week views, up from a prior lean toward the 60-70 million band, now down to 27% (-42 pts/24h). In film, Avengers: Doomsday holds a 57% edge over Spider-Man: Brand New Day's 40% for 2026's biggest opening week.