What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Traders Flip Los Angeles Mayor's Race as Raman Overtakes Bass
Bettors abandoned Karen Bass for Nithya Raman in the Los Angeles mayor's race on record volume, while Bucharest's premiership odds flipped from Alexandru Nazare to Sorin Grindeanu and Wall Street pushed Anthropic's IPO timeline toward year-end.
Los Angeles traders staged the day's sharpest reversal: Nithya Raman jumped to 58% (up 16 points on the day, up 22 over the week) in the mayoral race as Karen Bass slid to 42% (down 15 points on the day) on $352,369 of volume, the busiest single market in today's book. In Bucharest, the crowd's confidence in Alexandru Nazare cratered to 15% (down 16 points on the day, down 38 over the week) for Romania's premiership, handing the lead to Sorin Grindeanu at 41% (up 29 points on the week). Markets also pushed back Anthropic's IPO clock: an October 31 listing now prices at just 4% (down 49 points on the week), even as December 15 holds at 72%. And ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, traders slashed odds of a 15-second-plus handshake to 16% (down 42 points on the day), favoring a brisker 6-to-10-second clasp at 32% (up 18 points).
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?
47%→98%7d
$85,070 traded · 24h
Culture
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?
38%→98%7d
$10,997 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
13%→70%7d
$12,297 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
52%→3.5%7d
$17,165 traded · 24h
Culture
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?
18%→65%7d
$7,068 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during their summit?
57%→16%24h
$9,990 traded · 24h
Culture
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?
24%→65%7d
$8,235 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
53%→15%7d
$7,863 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, traders repriced handshake theater hard: odds of a grip lasting 15 seconds or more fell to 16% (down 42 points on the day), while a 6-to-10-second shake rose to 32% (up 18 points) and a brief 2-to-6-second clasp climbed to 21% (up 20 points). Separately, the market's confidence that Qatar's Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani joins a US-Iran peace round by year-end held at 70%, up 56 points over the week. The ceasefire-through-September-25 contract sits at 98%, largely the deadline arriving on schedule.
Los Angeles traders reversed course on their mayor's race, sending Nithya Raman to 58% (up 16 points on the day, up 22 on the week) as Karen Bass fell to 42% (down 15 points), on the day's heaviest volume at $352,369. In Romania, Alexandru Nazare's bid for prime minister collapsed to 15% (down 16 points on the day, down 38 on the week), with Sorin Grindeanu now favored at 41% (up 29 points on the week).
Markets pushed Anthropic's IPO clock later: an October 31 listing now prices at just 4% (down 49 points on the week), while December 15 still holds at 72% (down only 10 points). Rate expectations firmed too — the 30-year Treasury yield's odds of reaching 5.60% before 2027 jumped to 54% (up 33 points on the day), and traders raised the chance of three Fed hikes in 2026 to 32% (up 9 points on the day).
Traders pushed back their expected release window for the next Gemini Pro model: odds it arrives by October 9 fell to 17% (down 32 points on the day) and by October 15 to 34% (down 17 points), while October 23 remains the favored date at 65%, itself down 10 points on the day.
Barcelona strengthened its grip on future silverware, with markets giving it 78% (up 11 points on the week) to win LaLiga in 2027 and a leading 22% (up 3 points) for the 2027 Champions League, the day's largest sports market at $520,381. In the Ballon d'Or race, Harry Kane remains the crowd favorite at 58%, ahead of Lamine Yamal's 22%.
MrBeast's next upload is now favored to draw 60-70 million week-one views at 65% (up 3 points on the day, up 47 on the week), while "Primetime" traders lifted odds of a $22 million-plus opening weekend to 65% (up 18 points on the day). "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" sits at 98% for its $950-960 million gross target, largely a September 30 deadline now nearly arrived.