What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Spain snap election called in 2026?: 14% → 63%
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Spain snap election called in 2026? moved from 14% to 63% over the last 7d; Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 9m? moved from 51% to 92% over the last 24h; Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? moved from 22% to 47% over the last 7d; Will Bia Kicis win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election? moved from 58% to 85% over the last 7d. Full section tables below.
Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?
51%→92%24h
$12,862 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
22%→47%7d
$128,160 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Bia Kicis win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?
58%→85%7d
$15,258 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
90%→70%7d
$60,954 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?
30%→14%24h
$1,890,369 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)
40%→18%7d
$12,568 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?
29%→6.6%7d
$6,746 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by...? — December 31, 2026 at 38% (+25 pts/24h, +19 pts/7d); Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? — Ishaq Dar at 22% (-28 pts/7d).
Markets price: Spain snap election called by...? — December 31 at 63% (+30 pts/24h, +50 pts/7d); Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...? — December 31, 2027 at 14% (-15 pts/24h).
Markets price: Another Fed rate hike in 2026? — Another Fed rate hike in 2026? at 70% (-6 pts/24h, -20 pts/7d); How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? — 3 (75 bps) at 9% (-7 pts/24h, -30 pts/7d).
Markets price: GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...? — October 23 at 8% (-1 pts/24h, -47 pts/7d); What will the next Muse model family be named? — Muse Nova at 30% (+21 pts/24h, +21 pts/7d).
December 31, 20264%▲ 2 24hJune 30, 202747%December 31, 202770%
Sports
Markets price: Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 — Lamine Yamal at 47% (-6 pts/24h, +25 pts/7d); World Cup 2030: Location of Final — Other / Unconfirmed by 2028 at 48% (+10 pts/24h, +10 pts/7d).