What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?: 83% → 7%
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? moved from 83% to 7% over the last 7d; Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 28, 2026? moved from 94% to 29% over the last 24h; Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2027? moved from 52% to 3% over the last 7d; Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31? moved from 14% to 60% over the last 24h. Full section tables below.
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
83%→7%7d
$19,060 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 28, 2026?
94%→29%24h
$23,587 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2027?
52%→3.2%7d
$11,984 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?
14%→60%24h
$9,876 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?
43%→2.8%7d
$11,344 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?
44%→79%7d
$33,683 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
44%→12%7d
$73,407 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
40%→14%7d
$340,313 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...? — September 28 at 29% (-65 pts/24h, -30 pts/7d); Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...? — October 2 at 33% (-59 pts/24h, -17 pts/7d).
Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?10%▼ 14 24h
Politics & Elections
Markets price: Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner — Eduardo Paes at 7% (+1 pts/24h, -76 pts/7d); María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...? — October 31 at 60% (+45 pts/24h).
Markets price: Will Abstract launch a token by ___? — December 31, 2027 at 3% (-32 pts/24h, -49 pts/7d); Abstract FDV above ___ one day after launch? — $200M at 3% (-21 pts/24h, -40 pts/7d).
Markets price: Pro Football: NFC East Champion — Dallas Cowboys at 48% (+5 pts/24h, +20 pts/7d); ESL Pro League Season 24: Winner — Vitality at 40% (+2 pts/24h, +17 pts/7d).
Markets price: Jynxzi, Ron, and Los # of Minecraft deaths during marathon? — 60-89 at 32% (+25 pts/24h); Jynxzi, Ron, and Los beat Minecraft by...? — October 9 at 46% (-19 pts/24h).