What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 90 and 119 Minecraft deaths during the…
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 90 and 119 Minecraft deaths during the marathon? moved from 23% to 56% over the last 24h; US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? moved from 25% to 57% over the last 7d; Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? moved from 63% to 84% over the last 7d; Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? moved from 48% to 18% over the last 24h. Full section tables below.
Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 90 and 119 Minecraft deaths during the marathon?
23%→56%24h
$15,326 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?
25%→57%7d
$6,989 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
63%→84%7d
$410,987 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026?
48%→18%24h
$7,443 traded · 24h
Culture
Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 9?
45%→71%24h
$18,121 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Vitality Win the ESL Pro League Season 24?
26%→48%7d
$33,021 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?
20%→44%24h
$10,259 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Eddie Howe be the next head coach of the England national team?
24%→2%7d
$24,392 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...? — October 6 at 94% (-2 pts/24h, +44 pts/7d); Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...? — November 30 at 53% (-20 pts/24h).
Markets price: María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...? — December 31 at 56% (-22 pts/24h, +14 pts/7d); Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory — Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% at 54% (+16 pts/24h).
Alberto Núñez Feijóo74%▼ 7 24hPedro Sánchez24%▲ 5 24h
Economy & Crypto
Markets price: Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch? — $400M at 81% (+5 pts/24h, +20 pts/7d); Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch? — $500M at 88% (+5 pts/24h, +5 pts/7d).
Markets price: Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? — October 12 at 18% (-29 pts/24h); Gemini 4.0 released by...? — October 10 at 44% (+24 pts/24h, +10 pts/7d).
Markets price: MLB: 2026 American League Champion — Tampa Bay Rays at 62% (+14 pts/24h, +38 pts/7d); ESL Pro League Season 24: Winner — Vitality at 48% (+8 pts/24h, +22 pts/7d).
Markets price: Jynxzi, Ron, and Los # of Minecraft deaths during marathon? — 90-119 at 56% (+33 pts/24h); Jynxzi, Ron, and Los beat Minecraft by...? — October 9 at 71% (+26 pts/24h).