What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?: 27% → 95%
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? moved from 27% to 95% over the last 7d; Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m? moved from 7% to 69% over the last 7d; Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? moved from 26% to 75% over the last 7d; Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m? moved from 18% to 72% over the last 24h. Full section tables below.
Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?
7.5%→69%7d
$11,625 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?
26%→75%7d
$25,659 traded · 24h
Culture
Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?
18%→72%24h
$9,425 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
5.8%→53%7d
$12,991 traded · 24h
Sports
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?
50%→3%7d
$12,220 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
42%→12%7d
$911,162 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 American League Championship Series?
29%→65%7d
$30,483 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? — October 12 at 95% (+68 pts/7d); Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...? — November 30 at 70% (+48 pts/24h).
Markets price: Next Prime Minister of Romania? — Luca Niculescu at 53% (-4 pts/24h, +48 pts/7d); Brazil Presidential Election — Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 12% (-2 pts/24h, -31 pts/7d).
Markets price: Will Predict.fun launch a token by ___? — December 31, 2026 at 82% (-1 pts/24h, +33 pts/7d); Anthropic IPO by __? — December 15, 2026 at 74% (-4 pts/24h, -8 pts/7d).
Markets price: Gemini 4.0 released by...? — October 10 at 3% (-6 pts/24h, -36 pts/7d); Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? — October 17 at 48% (-6 pts/24h, -30 pts/7d).
Markets price: Singapore Grand Prix: Driver Winner — George Russell at 3% (+2 pts/24h, -46 pts/7d); MLB: 2026 American League Champion — Tampa Bay Rays at 65% (+3 pts/24h, +36 pts/7d).