What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 15?: 9% → 88%
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 15? moved from 9% to 88% over the last 24h; Will Putin hold a bilateral meeting with Alexander Lukashenko in Turkmenistan? moved from 51% to 2% over the last 24h; Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? moved from 50% to 2% over the last 7d; Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? moved from 26% to 68% over the last 7d. Full section tables below.
Will Putin hold a bilateral meeting with Alexander Lukashenko in Turkmenistan?
51%→1.5%24h
$35,879 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?
50%→2.1%7d
$28,557 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?
26%→68%7d
$12,595 traded · 24h
Culture
Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?
16%→54%7d
$18,187 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Vitality Win the ESL Pro League Season 24?
33%→66%7d
$58,240 traded · 24h
Sports
Will George Russell achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?
50%→9.2%7d
$6,206 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?
45%→84%7d
$7,501 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: Riyadh airport closed to departures for 24 hours by...? — October 15 at 88% (+79 pts/24h); Who will Putin meet bilaterally in Turkmenistan? — Alexander Lukashenko at 2% (-50 pts/24h).
Markets price: Brazil Presidential Election — Flávio Bolsonaro at 88% (-1 pts/24h, +24 pts/7d); Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá — Lula at 4% (-16 pts/24h).
Markets price: Will Predict.fun launch a token by ___? — December 31, 2026 at 84% (+2 pts/24h, +38 pts/7d); Papertrade FDV above ___ one day after launch? — $75M at 55% (-16 pts/24h, -16 pts/7d).
Markets price: Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? — October 17 at 28% (-20 pts/24h, -49 pts/7d); Gemini 4.0 released by...? — October 15 at 60% (+6 pts/24h, -26 pts/7d).