The Probable Times — Monday, October 12, 2026

Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m? moved from 19% to 98% over the last 7d; Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? moved from 26% to 76% over the last 7d; Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? moved from 16% to 52% over the last 7d; Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? moved from 19% to 54% over the last 7d. Full section tables below.

Culture

Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?

19%→ 98% 7d

$5,249 traded · 24h

Geopolitics

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

26%→ 76% 7d

$9,282 traded · 24h

Sports

Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?

16%→ 52% 7d

$20,786 traded · 24h

Geopolitics

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?

19%→ 54% 7d

$12,203 traded · 24h

Economy & Crypto

Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?

45%→ 78% 7d

$6,651 traded · 24h

Sports

Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series?

15%→ 37% 7d

$73,994 traded · 24h

Geopolitics

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

47%→ 28% 24h

$45,075 traded · 24h

Sports

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

47%→ 65% 7d

$64,263 traded · 24h

Geopolitics

Markets price: Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...? — October 5 at 95% (+69 pts/7d); Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? — November 15 at 76% (+2 pts/24h, +50 pts/7d).

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...? $47,191 · 24h

October 595%▲ 69 7dOctober 896%▲ 62 7dOctober 482%▲ 32 24hOctober 2539%▲ 28 24h

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? $204,616 · 24h

November 1576%▲ 2 24hOctober 1596%▲ 6 7dNovember 3064%▼ 8 7dDecember 3157%▼ 6 7d

US imports Russian diesel by October 31? $45,075 · 24h

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?28%▼ 19 24h

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...? $26,195 · 24h

December 3154%▼ 14 24hOctober 3134%▼ 2 24hOctober 1512%▼ 8 24hNovember 3050%▼ 8 24h

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...? $38,055 · 24h

October 3122%▲ 8 24hNovember 3040%▲ 2 24hOctober 152.5%▼ 11 7dDecember 3155%▼ 3 24h

Next leader out of power before 2027? $22,786 · 24h

None before 202748%▲ 8 24hSánchez - Spanish PM14%▼ 3 24hNetanyahu - Israel PM24%▼ 2 24hZelenskyy - Ukraine President2.2%▲ 1 24h

Politics & Elections

Markets price: Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory — Flávio Bolsonaro <4% at 23% (-4 pts/24h, -22 pts/7d); Toronto Mayoral Election Winner — Brad Bradford at 30% (+18 pts/7d).

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory $52,838 · 24h

Flávio Bolsonaro <4%23%▼ 4 24hFlávio Bolsonaro 8-12%14%▼ 1 24hFlávio Bolsonaro 12%+2.1%▼ 1 24hLula da Silva <4%10%▲ 1 24h

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner $22,744 · 24h

Brad Bradford30%▲ 18 7dOlivia Chow70%▼ 1 24h

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner $186,286 · 24h

Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia60%▲ 5 24hStudent List – Students Win40%▼ 4 24h

Next Prime Minister of Serbia? $22,318 · 24h

Aleksandar Vučić59%▼ 6 24hIvica Dačić5.9%▲ 5 24hVladan Đokić4.1%▲ 2 7dIlija Srdanović22%▲ 1 7d

Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...? $24,735 · 24h

June 30, 202720%▲ 6 24hDecember 31, 202722%▲ 3 24hDecember 31, 20263.2%▼ 2 7dDecember 31, 202826%▲ 2 7d

Texas enacts data center moratorium by...? $129,036 · 24h

December 31, 202720%▲ 4 24hDecember 31, 202827%▲ 2 24hDecember 31, 20263.1%▼ 1 24h

Economy & Crypto

Markets price: Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch? — $600M at 78% (+11 pts/24h, +34 pts/7d); Anthropic IPO by __? — December 15, 2026 at 62% (-12 pts/24h, -17 pts/7d).

Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch? $38,882 · 24h

$600M78%▲ 11 24h$500M82%▲ 4 24h$400M87%▲ 4 24h$300M90%▲ 4 24h

Anthropic IPO by __? $41,140 · 24h

December 15, 202662%▼ 12 24hDecember 31, 202672%▼ 2 24hNovember 30, 202654%▼ 6 24hNovember 15, 20263.9%▼ 5 24h

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be? $21,178 · 24h

$2.5T+14%▼ 1 24h$1.25T–$1.5T8.3%▼ 4 24h$1.75T–$2.0T20%▼ 3 24h$2.0T–$2.25T9%▲ 3 24h

Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch? $24,696 · 24h

$800M76%▼ 4 24h$500M90%▼ 1 24h$1B58%▼ 2 24h$2B28%▼ 1 24h

Another Fed rate hike in 2026? $35,449 · 24h

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?76%▼ 1 24h

Will GameStop acquire eBay? $21,957 · 24h

Will GameStop acquire eBay?6.5%▲ 1 24h

Science & Tech

Markets price: Gemini 4.0 released by...? — October 12 at 5% (-12 pts/24h); Plague pandemic in 2026? — Plague pandemic in 2026? at 2% (-1 pts/24h, -10 pts/7d).

Gemini 4.0 released by...? $71,220 · 24h

October 124.7%▼ 12 24hOctober 1562%▲ 1 24hOctober 1664%▼ 3 24hOctober 1450%▲ 1 24h

Plague pandemic in 2026? $21,785 · 24h

Plague pandemic in 2026?2%▼ 1 24h

Sports

Markets price: Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? — Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? at 52% (+5 pts/24h, +37 pts/7d); MLB: 2026 American League Champion — Cleveland Guardians at 37% (-2 pts/24h, +22 pts/7d).

Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? $20,771 · 24h

Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?52%▲ 5 24h

MLB: 2026 American League Champion $76,817 · 24h

Cleveland Guardians37%▼ 2 24hTampa Bay Rays63%▲ 3 24h

MLB: 2026 National League Champion $25,132 · 24h

Milwaukee Brewers54%▲ 14 24hLos Angeles Dodgers47%▼ 12 24h

Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 $667,020 · 24h

Harry Kane65%▼ 1 24hLamine Yamal29%▲ 1 24hLionel Messi2.5%Kylian Mbappé2.5%

MLB World Series Champion 2026 $167,202 · 24h

Los Angeles Dodgers35%▼ 8 24hMilwaukee Brewers33%▲ 8 24hTampa Bay Rays22%▲ 8 7dCleveland Guardians9.4%▼ 1 24h

Ballon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026 $20,171 · 24h

Lionel Messi24%▼ 6 24hKylian Mbappé70%▲ 6 7dKhvicha Kvaratskhelia9.6%▲ 3 24hLamine Yamal94%▼ 2 24h

Culture

Markets price: "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office — 24-27m at 2% (-45 pts/24h, -16 pts/7d); NCAA Football: 2026 Heisman Award Winner — Jeremiah Smith at 58% (-6 pts/24h, +8 pts/7d).

"Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office $20,668 · 24h

24-27m1.6%▼ 45 24h27-30m98%▲ 45 24h

NCAA Football: 2026 Heisman Award Winner $154,086 · 24h

Jeremiah Smith58%▼ 6 24hCJ Carr3.6%▼ 8 7dDarian Mensah11%▲ 4 24hMarcel Reed2.9%▼ 1 7d

Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?: 19% → 98%

Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?

Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?

Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series?

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Geopolitics

Politics & Elections

Economy & Crypto

Science & Tech

Sports

Culture

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