What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?: 28% → 74%
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? moved from 28% to 74% over the last 24h; Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15? moved from 48% to 5% over the last 7d; Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? moved from 25% to 53% over the last 7d; Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? moved from 59% to 83% over the last 7d. Full section tables below.
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?
28%→74%24h
$10,841 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?
48%→5.4%7d
$8,040 traded · 24h
Sports
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?
25%→53%7d
$94,710 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
59%→83%7d
$28,719 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
53%→80%7d
$5,845 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Shanghai, China?
14%→32%7d
$10,658 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
48%→32%7d
$29,868 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
48%→62%7d
$41,042 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: Will Russia target Kyiv on...? — October 17 at 86% (+36 pts/24h, +30 pts/7d); Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...? — October 6 at 92% (+60 pts/7d).
November 3026%▲ 11 24hDecember 3128%▲ 3 24hOctober 316.4%▲ 1 24h
Politics & Elections
Markets price: Next Prime Minister of Romania? — Luca Niculescu at 83% (+24 pts/24h, +24 pts/7d); What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? — 4.25% at 62% (+12 pts/24h, -6 pts/7d).
Markets price: Anthropic IPO by __? — December 31, 2026 at 70% (-13 pts/7d); How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? — 2 (50 bps) at 64% (-6 pts/24h, -3 pts/7d).
December 31, 202920%▲ 2 24hDecember 31, 202816%▲ 1 24h
Science & Tech
Markets price: Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? — October 17 at 74% (+46 pts/24h, +6 pts/7d); GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...? — October 31 at 28% (+8 pts/24h, +6 pts/7d).