What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?: 92% → 9%
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026? moved from 92% to 9% over the last 24h; Will there be no Hormuz agreement? moved from 15% to 96% over the last 7d; Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1? moved from 8% to 55% over the last 24h; US imports Russian diesel by October 31? moved from 47% to 3% over the last 7d. Full section tables below.
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?
7.6%→55%24h
$30,884 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?
47%→2.7%7d
$8,237 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
60%→95%7d
$27,387 traded · 24h
Sports
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?
25%→64%7d
$6,584 traded · 24h
Culture
Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
45%→68%7d
$8,514 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
48%→30%7d
$39,334 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: Will Russia target Kyiv on...? — October 17 at 9% (-83 pts/24h, -77 pts/7d); Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23? — No Hormuz Agreement at 96% (-1 pts/24h, +80 pts/7d).
Markets price: Next Prime Minister of Romania? — Luca Niculescu at 95% (+7 pts/24h, +35 pts/7d); Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory — Iotova 40%+ at 17% (+16 pts/24h, +16 pts/7d).
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia68%▲ 7 24hStudent List – Students Win32%▼ 6 24h
Economy & Crypto
Markets price: How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027? — Below 4.50% at 29% (-4 pts/24h, +14 pts/7d); Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch? — $500M at 72% (-6 pts/24h, -6 pts/7d).
Markets price: Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? — October 22 at 50% (-16 pts/24h); Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...? — October 21 at 15% (+13 pts/24h, +10 pts/7d).
Markets price: MLB World Series Champion 2026 — Milwaukee Brewers at 64% (-2 pts/24h, +38 pts/7d); Who will attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony? — Lionel Messi at 34% (+19 pts/24h).
Markets price: # of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer on week 1? — 60-80M at 55% (+47 pts/24h); Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations — You Can See Everything at 68% (-6 pts/24h, +24 pts/7d).