Tuesday, October 20, 2026GraphArchiveSubscribeDaily · No. 132

The Probable Times

What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news

Papertrade FDV above $50M one day after launch?: 92% → 46%

Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.

Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Papertrade FDV above $50M one day after launch? moved from 92% to 46% over the last 24h; Will Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027? moved from 76% to 26% over the last 24h; Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? moved from 59% to 95% over the last 7d; Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? moved from 76% to 40% over the last 24h. Full section tables below.

Today’s biggest movesprobability shifts, volume-weighted
Economy & Crypto

Papertrade FDV above $50M one day after launch?

92%→ 46% 24h
$27,520 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto

Will Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027?

76%→ 26% 24h
$5,195 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections

Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

59%→ 95% 7d
$21,438 traded · 24h
Science & Tech

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?

76%→ 40% 24h
$18,290 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections

Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?

64%→ 92% 7d
$21,773 traded · 24h
Geopolitics

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?

48%→ 24% 7d
$100,139 traded · 24h
Geopolitics

Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

50%→ 72% 7d
$84,417 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections

Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?

12%→ 34% 7d
$20,020 traded · 24h

Geopolitics

Markets price: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...? — October 24 at 70% (+40 pts/7d); Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...? — December 31 at 24% (-6 pts/24h, -24 pts/7d).

October 2470%▲ 40 7dOctober 2270%▲ 2 24hOctober 2775%▲ 8 24hOctober 3160%▲ 4 24h
December 3124%▼ 6 24hOctober 315.1%▼ 19 7dNovember 3016%▼ 4 24h
Ursula von der Leyen66%▲ 24 24hMark Rutte36%▲ 1 24hMark Carney8.5%▼ 5 24hJD Vance5.4%▼ 1 24h
Yashar72%▲ 4 24hLikud28%▼ 4 24hTogether1.7%▲ 1 24h
November 3074%▼ 4 24hOctober 3196%▲ 2 24hOctober 2199%
Kim Jong Un18%▼ 12 24hKing Mohammed VI7.5%▼ 3 24hiShowSpeed6.8%▲ 3 24hVladimir Putin84%▼ 2 24h

Politics & Elections

Markets price: Next Prime Minister of Romania? — Luca Niculescu at 95% (-1 pts/24h, +36 pts/7d); Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory — Remain 40–60% at 92% (+14 pts/24h, +28 pts/7d).

Luca Niculescu95%▼ 1 24h
Remain 40–60%92%▲ 14 24hRemain 60–80%7%▼ 10 24h
Lula34%▲ 10 24hFlavio Bolsonaro66%▼ 10 24h
November 3052%▼ 8 24hDecember 3176%▼ 6 24hOctober 3110%▼ 5 24h
Flávio Bolsonaro <4%46%▲ 8 24hFlávio Bolsonaro 4-8%27%▼ 2 24hFlávio Bolsonaro 8-12%5.7%▼ 1 24hLula da Silva <4%20%▼ 1 24h
Flávio Bolsonaro77%▼ 2 24hLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva22%▲ 1 24h

Economy & Crypto

Markets price: Papertrade FDV above ___ one day after launch? — $50M at 46% (-45 pts/24h, -23 pts/7d); Will Papertrade launch a token by ___? — June 30, 2027 at 26% (-50 pts/24h, -47 pts/7d).

$50M46%▼ 45 24h$25M52%▼ 44 24h$75M48%▼ 38 24h$100M48%▼ 36 24h
June 30, 202726%▼ 50 24hDecember 31, 202617%▼ 41 24hSeptember 30, 202738%▼ 44 24hDecember 31, 202788%
Anthropic IPO by __? $49,635 · 24h
December 15, 202676%▲ 11 7dNovember 30, 202662%▼ 6 24hDecember 31, 202678%▲ 3 24hNovember 15, 202611%▲ 5 7d
December 31, 202816%▼ 2 24hDecember 31, 202924%▲ 2 7d
0 (0 bps)97%▲ 1 7d

Science & Tech

Markets price: Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? — October 24 at 40% (-36 pts/24h, -8 pts/7d); Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...? — October 20 at 12% (-19 pts/24h, +2 pts/7d).

October 2440%▼ 36 24hOctober 2235%▼ 24 24hOctober 2119%▼ 21 24hOctober 3174%▼ 10 24h
October 2012%▼ 19 24hNo release by October 3125%▲ 10 24hOctober 3112%▲ 12 24hOctober 2713%▲ 2 24h
December 31, 202616%▼ 12 24hJanuary 31, 202732%▼ 1 24hFebruary 28, 202736%▲ 2 24hJune 30, 202753%▲ 8 7d
December 31, 202744%▼ 1 24hDecember 31, 20263.3%▲ 2 24hJune 30, 202726%▼ 2 24h

Sports

Markets price: Who will perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? — Post Malone at 22% (-31 pts/24h, -7 pts/7d); Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? — Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? at 70% (+13 pts/24h, +12 pts/7d).

Post Malone22%▼ 31 24hMiley Cyrus42%▼ 16 24hMorgan Wallen20%▲ 10 24hJay Z70%▲ 8 24h
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?70%▲ 13 24h
Tampa Bay Rays37%▲ 6 24hMilwaukee Brewers62%▲ 17 7d
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 $1,424,047 · 24h
Lamine Yamal19%▼ 7 24hHarry Kane73%▲ 6 24hKylian Mbappé5.2%▲ 2 24hLionel Messi2.4%▼ 1 24h
Kylian Mbappé83%▲ 4 24hLamine Yamal86%▼ 7 24hLionel Messi20%▼ 1 24hRodri10%▼ 5 7d
EPL: 2027 Champion $151,900 · 24h
Manchester City16%▼ 3 24hArsenal64%▲ 2 24hBrighton6.2%▲ 1 24hChelsea7%▲ 1 7d

Culture

Markets price: # of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer on week 1? — 60-80M at 50% (-17 pts/24h).

60-80M50%▼ 17 24h40-60M48%▲ 15 24h

Probabilities are the crowd's opinion of tomorrow — updated daily.

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