What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?: 86% → 8%
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026? moved from 86% to 8% over the last 7d; Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? moved from 80% to 5% over the last 7d; Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1? moved from 48% to 8% over the last 24h; Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch? moved from 84% to 50% over the last 7d. Full section tables below.
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?
80%→5%7d
$5,391 traded · 24h
Culture
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?
48%→7.5%24h
$93,072 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch?
84%→50%7d
$20,025 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Zinedine Zidane attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?
26%→64%24h
$7,053 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026?
46%→14%7d
$22,295 traded · 24h
Sports
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?
44%→63%7d
$25,643 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?
49%→30%7d
$12,734 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: Will Russia target Kyiv on...? — October 17 at 8% (-2 pts/24h, -78 pts/7d); US imports Russian diesel by...? — November 30 at 30% (-20 pts/7d).
Markets price: Next Press Secretary announced by...? — December 31 at 62% (-14 pts/24h); Toronto Mayoral Election Winner — Olivia Chow at 65% (-10 pts/24h, -8 pts/7d).
Markets price: Papertrade FDV above ___ one day after launch? — $25M at 50% (-2 pts/24h, -34 pts/7d); Will Papertrade launch a token by ___? — December 31, 2026 at 14% (-3 pts/24h, -32 pts/7d).
Markets price: Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? — October 21 at 5% (-14 pts/24h, -76 pts/7d); Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...? — October 27 at 26% (+12 pts/24h, +25 pts/7d).
Markets price: Who will attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony? — Zinedine Zidane at 64% (+38 pts/24h); Who will perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? — Miley Cyrus at 11% (-31 pts/24h, -60 pts/7d).
Markets price: # of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer on week 1? — 40-60M at 8% (-41 pts/24h); Highest grossing movie in 2026? — Avengers: Doomsday at 9% (+4 pts/24h, +5 pts/7d).