What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?: 92% → 13%
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026? moved from 92% to 13% over the last 7d; Will "Ali G: Who Iz I?" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $2M? moved from 19% to 94% over the last 24h; Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026? moved from 73% to 14% over the last 7d; US imports Russian diesel by November 30? moved from 30% to 73% over the last 24h. Full section tables below.
Will "Ali G: Who Iz I?" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $2M?
19%→94%24h
$10,367 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?
73%→14%7d
$12,048 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?
30%→73%24h
$47,953 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?
32%→64%7d
$48,012 traded · 24h
Culture
Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 22m?
23%→60%24h
$6,293 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?
22%→44%24h
$35,003 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
29%→50%7d
$17,195 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: US imports Russian diesel by...? — November 30 at 73% (+44 pts/24h, +34 pts/7d); Will Russia target Kyiv on...? — October 17 at 13% (+5 pts/24h, -79 pts/7d).
Markets price: Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch? — $1B at 56% (+19 pts/24h, +10 pts/7d); Total commitments for the 1win ($1w) public sale — $30M at 58% (-12 pts/24h).
Markets price: Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? — October 22 at 14% (+1 pts/24h, -59 pts/7d); Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...? — October 27 at 27% (+1 pts/24h, +26 pts/7d).