What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?: 85% → 23%
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? moved from 85% to 23% over the last 7d; Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? moved from 21% to 76% over the last 7d; Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $21M? moved from 88% to 24% over the last 24h; Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%? moved from 74% to 12% over the last 7d. Full section tables below.
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?
85%→23%7d
$27,843 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?
21%→76%7d
$77,920 traded · 24h
Culture
Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $21M?
88%→24%24h
$15,618 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?
74%→12%7d
$17,694 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?
15%→77%7d
$15,078 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?
32%→82%7d
$29,298 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Radomir Saičić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
50%→2.5%7d
$18,145 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?
60%→20%24h
$12,231 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...? — November 30 at 76% (+10 pts/24h, +55 pts/7d); US imports Russian diesel by...? — November 30 at 82% (+12 pts/24h, +50 pts/7d).
November 3038%▲ 14 24hDecember 3162%▲ 6 24hOctober 315.2%▲ 2 24h
Politics & Elections
Markets price: Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory — Iotova 20-30% at 12% (-61 pts/7d); Next Prime Minister of Serbia? — Radomir Saičić at 2% (+2 pts/24h, -48 pts/7d).
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia74%▲ 4 24hStudent List – Students Win26%▼ 4 24h
Economy & Crypto
Markets price: Anthropic IPO by __? — November 20, 2026 at 20% (-41 pts/24h); Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch? — $800M at 75% (-2 pts/24h, +20 pts/7d).
Markets price: Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? — October 31 at 23% (-7 pts/24h, -62 pts/7d); Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...? — No release by October 31 at 77% (+8 pts/24h, +61 pts/7d).
December 31, 202760%▲ 8 24hDecember 31, 202616%▲ 1 7d
Sports
Markets price: Who will attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony? — Vinícius Júnior at 82% (+12 pts/24h, +55 pts/7d); UEFA Europa League: League Phase Winner — Benfica at 54% (+22 pts/24h, +35 pts/7d).