What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?: 19% → 72%
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? moved from 19% to 72% over the last 7d; Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%? moved from 9% to 58% over the last 7d; Will Radomir Saičić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? moved from 50% to 2% over the last 7d; Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? moved from 79% to 36% over the last 7d. Full section tables below.
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?
9.5%→58%7d
$16,986 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Radomir Saičić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
50%→2.3%7d
$6,663 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?
79%→36%7d
$11,157 traded · 24h
Culture
Will "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 12m?
34%→72%7d
$9,023 traded · 24h
Sports
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?
52%→75%7d
$94,610 traded · 24h
Sports
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?
64%→84%7d
$53,765 traded · 24h
Culture
Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $21M?
24%→3.5%24h
$19,539 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...? — November 30 at 72% (-4 pts/24h, +52 pts/7d); US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? — October 31 at 84% (+7 pts/24h, +2 pts/7d).
Markets price: Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory — Iotova 10-20% at 58% (-4 pts/24h, +49 pts/7d); Next Prime Minister of Serbia? — Radomir Saičić at 2% (-48 pts/7d).
Markets price: Total commitments for the 1win ($1w) public sale — $40M at 33% (-16 pts/24h, -25 pts/7d); Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch? — $800M at 74% (+22 pts/7d).
Markets price: Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? — October 31 at 36% (+13 pts/24h, -43 pts/7d); OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...? — December 31, 2027 at 52% (-7 pts/24h, +2 pts/7d).
December 31, 202752%▼ 7 24hDecember 31, 202614%▼ 2 24h
Sports
Markets price: United States Grand Prix: Driver Winner — Kimi Antonelli at 42% (+18 pts/24h, +14 pts/7d); Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? — Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? at 75% (+24 pts/7d).