What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less th…
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%? moved from 5% to 98% over the last 7d; Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? moved from 14% to 98% over the last 24h; Will "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 14m? moved from 12% to 79% over the last 7d; Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%? moved from 40% to 93% over the last 7d. Full section tables below.
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?
5%→98%7d
$63,592 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
14%→98%24h
$14,624 traded · 24h
Culture
Will "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 14m?
12%→79%7d
$9,796 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?
40%→93%7d
$40,998 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?
19%→69%7d
$51,762 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?
16%→70%7d
$13,472 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?
84%→31%7d
$16,645 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
8.6%→46%7d
$10,108 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...? — November 30 at 69% (-3 pts/24h, +50 pts/7d); Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate — Lula, Eizenkot, Dems at 46% (+33 pts/24h, +38 pts/7d).
Markets price: Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch? — $1B at 61% (+3 pts/24h, +22 pts/7d); Will Predict.fun launch a token by ___? — November 30, 2026 at 97% (+15 pts/24h, +19 pts/7d).
Markets price: Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...? — No release by October 31 at 70% (+5 pts/24h, +54 pts/7d); Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? — October 31 at 31% (-4 pts/24h, -52 pts/7d).
Markets price: Who will perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? — Post Malone at 6% (-5 pts/24h, -47 pts/7d); Who will attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony? — Michael Owen at 88% (+29 pts/24h, +14 pts/7d).