What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?: 18% → 94%
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? moved from 18% to 94% over the last 24h; Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? moved from 69% to 2% over the last 7d; Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? moved from 27% to 96% over the last 24h; Will The Joint List win 7.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections? moved from 13% to 88% over the last 7d. Full section tables below.
Markets price: Next Prime Minister of Serbia? — Aleksandar Vučić at 2% (+1 pts/24h, -67 pts/7d); Paris curfew effectively lifted by...? — October 31 at 98% (+30 pts/24h, +49 pts/7d).
Aaron Ford (D)80%▲ 10 24hJoe Lombardo (R)20%▼ 10 24h
Economy & Crypto
Markets price: What will Anthropic's public ticker be? — $ANT at 97% (-2 pts/24h, +73 pts/7d); How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO? — $75B to $85B at 9% (-25 pts/24h).
Markets price: Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? — October 30 at 6% (-26 pts/24h, -72 pts/7d); Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...? — No release by October 31 at 91% (+24 pts/24h, +68 pts/7d).
Markets price: Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026? — Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 36% (-8 pts/7d); Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner — You Can See Everything at 22% (-5 pts/24h, +4 pts/7d).